Oleksandr Usyk has made his choice. Before hanging up his gloves, the phenomenal Ukrainian fighter, one of the greatest exponents of the Noble Art of his generation, will return to his original weight class, cruiserweight, in an attempt to become undisputed champion once again. It is an intriguing prospect in some respects, but one that comes with considerable risks, as several unencouraging historical precedents suggest.
The boxing world has reacted to the news in rather different ways. Some have been thrilled by the prospect, already relishing a five-star showdown between Usyk and David Benavidez, potentially with all four major cruiserweight world titles at stake. Others, however, have expressed serious reservations, including respected American journalist Cliff Rold, who summed up his thoughts in a particularly scathing post:
“Why the hell would the heavyweight king move DOWN a weight class for anything? We live in the stupidest boxing timeline.”
Regardless of whether one likes the scenario outlined by the Ukrainian fighter and his team, it is only natural to wonder how likely he is to succeed. This is no trivial question, particularly when we consider not only Usyk’s unquestionable technical ability and familiar attributes, but also his age and the physical “transformation” his body will have to undergo.
Let’s be perfectly clear: the 2018 version of Oleksandr Usyk, the fighter who completely neutralised the devastating Russian puncher Murat Gassiev in front of a hostile Moscow crowd with an outstanding display of boxing mastery, unifying all four major cruiserweight world titles in the process, would be a clear favourite against the current version of Benavidez.
The American is an accomplished fighter in his own right, having made considerable technical and tactical improvements over the years. He possesses extraordinary timing, work rate and hand speed for a man of his size. Moreover, his move to cruiserweight seems to have allowed him to find his ideal weight class, enabling him to enter the ring at full strength without having to drain himself to make weight.
Benavidez, however, lacks the footwork required to hunt down and trouble the best version of Usyk. The American is relatively flat-footed, not particularly quick when changing direction or moving around the ring. It is therefore reasonable to assume that the relentless movement of Usyk in his prime would have left him disoriented, neutralising his strengths and rendering him ineffective.
There is, however, one major caveat. The last time we saw Usyk compete below the 200-pound limit was in November 2018, when he stopped Tony Bellew. That was eight years ago. Since then, the Simferopol-born fighter has gradually increased his body mass, eventually reaching his heaviest-ever weight of 105.8 kg (233 pounds) in May of this year, when he defeated former kickboxer Rico Verhoeven in Egypt.
Usyk now claims to weigh between 96 and 97 kg (211–214 pounds), and indeed, looking at him, one gets the impression that he has slimmed down considerably over the past few months compared to his most recent appearances. It is therefore by no means unrealistic to expect the Ukrainian to bring the scales down to 200 pounds (90.7 kg) ahead of his scheduled fights in 2027. But making the weight limit does not automatically mean being an effective and sharp operator in the ring.
For almost a decade now, Usyk has grown accustomed to stepping into the ring carrying additional body mass, which cannot have failed to influence his psychomotor patterns. Even assuming, by no means a foregone conclusion, that such a drastic weight loss does not negatively affect his explosiveness, strength and stamina, his timing and coordination could still suffer. Executing split-second defensive manoeuvres, combinations, exits and re-entries while moving a significantly different amount of body mass requires different motor patterns and ingrained reflexes.
There is another potential problem to consider. For the past eight years, Usyk has been facing opponents who are bigger and slower than him. After an initial adjustment period (we all remember the uncertainty surrounding his less-than-impressive performance against Derek Chisora), he adapted his boxing style accordingly, maximising his advantages while making the size discrepancy largely irrelevant. Against Benavidez, however, he would have to deal with punches that, although lighter, would come at three times the speed and frequency of those thrown by a Dubois or a Joshua. This change of circumstances could present him with some serious problems.
If we take a look at recent boxing history, we can identify a couple of examples that illustrate quite clearly the risks Usyk is taking. We will focus on two of them.
When Roy Jones Jr moved up to heavyweight to capture the WBA world title, only to immediately return to light heavyweight and continue his reign at 175 pounds, rapidly gaining and shedding weight in the process, he set in motion the downfall of his career and began his decline. When Chris Byrd, after a long and successful run at heavyweight, surprisingly dropped down to light heavyweight at the age of 38, he was brutally knocked out by the relatively unheralded Shaun George.
Should we therefore expect Usyk to suffer a similar catastrophe, tarnishing his legacy and giving his detractors an opportunity to bury him under an avalanche of absurd criticism? Not necessarily. From a purely technical standpoint, Oleksandr Usyk has a more solid foundation than Roy Jones Jr, whose instinctive style of boxing relied primarily on superhuman physical gifts. The Ukrainian is also a more complete fighter than Byrd and has spent less time above his natural weight than the American.
We cannot therefore rule out the possibility that Oleksandr knows exactly what he is doing and has the resources within himself to pull off yet another remarkable sporting achievement. In the end, as always, the ring will be the only qualified judge capable of delivering the final verdict.