This Saturday, at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, the highly popular Mexican boxer Juan Francisco “El Gallo” Estrada (44-3-0, 28 KOs) will look to defend his WBC super flyweight world title against the American Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez (19-0-0, 12 KOs) in a card organized by Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom Boxing.
Juan Francisco Estrada: The Quintessential “Complete” Boxer
Often when we hear the words “Mexican boxer,” we almost automatically imagine an aggressive fighter, little interested in defense, and constantly on the attack. In reality, while Mexico has produced many fighters who are literally incapable of taking a step back, it is not uncommon for a well-rounded champion to emerge from that country, capable of excelling in all phases of a fight. Estrada is the perfect example: while he is absolutely comfortable in open exchanges, El Gallo moves with great speed and ease, makes good use of the ring, and when necessary, masterfully counterpunches, dodging his opponent’s blows with subtle movements of his torso and head before countering with his own punches. Extremely varied in his combinations, the reigning champion’s only flaw might be that he does not always maintain high intensity throughout the twelve rounds: sometimes, especially in the middle stages of the fight, he tends to concede a few rounds to his opponent, perhaps to ensure he has enough energy for the final sprint.
Jesse Rodriguez: A Master of the Ancient Art of “Positioning”
Generally, boxers who are universally praised for their footwork are those who move with great speed, covering a lot of ground and bouncing tirelessly from one corner of the ring to the other. In reality, boxing history teaches us that the use of legs within the ropes can be decisive even while staying almost in place. Those who, with small, sometimes almost imperceptible movements, manage to position themselves perfectly to inflict maximum damage on their opponent while making it extremely difficult for the rival to respond effectively can rightly be called “masters of positioning.” In this specific aspect, Jesse Rodriguez is a worthy heir to past greats like Jose Napoles and Wilfred Benitez: like his illustrious predecessors, Bam manages to constantly stay in front of his opponent without giving them the right angles to punish him. While preferring to use loose and fast punches, the 24-year-old American has recently shown that he can switch to a more aggressive style when necessary: challenged by the hand speed and timing of Sunny Edwards last December, he went into warrior mode, breaking down the unfortunate English boxer.
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction!
Despite being only 24 years old and having fought less than half the fights of his opponent, Jesse Rodriguez is considered the clear favorite by bookmakers. This fact helps us understand how highly the boxing world regards the young Texan challenger, already considered a true prodigy by many.
However, if we consider that Bam is a “slow starter” who tends to increase the pace as the fight progresses after carefully studying his opponent’s movements, and that Estrada, on the contrary, has accustomed us to sparkling starts, it is reasonable to suspect that the first rounds of the fight may favor the experienced champion. As the minutes pass, however, Rodriguez’s constant increase in intensity and work rate, combined with Estrada’s habit of conserving energy, suggests a shift in momentum that would give the challenger control around the midpoint of the fight. Much like what happened to him in his second fight against Roman Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent in their third, Estrada risks often finding himself on the defensive, overwhelmed by his opponent’s relentless work rate and forced to backpedal to catch his breath and find space for his counterattacks. There is no doubt that El Gallo, if he falls behind on the scorecards as we hypothesize, will give it his all in the championship rounds with the courage that has always characterized him, aiming to turn the outcome of the fight in his favor.
At that point, however, two aspects could make the difference: the greater freshness of the young Rodriguez, certainly less worn out due to his much shorter career, and Estrada’s recent inactivity, having not fought an official fight since December 2022, more than a year and a half ago. In a potential breathtaking finale, the sharpness and timing needed to prevail in the decisive exchanges should belong to the challenger. I therefore predict a convincing points victory for Jesse Rodriguez, with a margin of about four points on the judges’ scorecards.