This Saturday, at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, one of the most absurd events in boxing history from an organizational standpoint will take place. The card will be held in a city that has been targeted by military attacks, with its airport repeatedly struck in recent weeks, resulting in deaths and injuries. The situation has become so serious that the teams of the fighters involved landed in Bahrain before traveling overland to reach their destination. This article, however, will not focus on this madness, but rather on the technical aspects of the evening’s main event, in the hope that everything goes ahead without incident. Stepping into the ring will be WBC super middleweight world champion Christian Mbilli and Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, who will be the challenger this time around.
Always on the Attack: Christian Mbilli’s Reckless Style
The word “caution” is not part of the reigning world champion’s vocabulary. Mbilli fears nothing and simply doesn’t know how to fight with the brakes on. From the opening bell to the final gong, the Frenchman of Cameroonian descent relentlessly attacks whoever stands in front of him, throwing every single punch with all the strength he can muster.
Naturally, this causes him to burn through enormous amounts of energy and leaves him exposed to dangerous counterpunches, but so far his exceptional athletic abilities have protected him from the potentially devastating consequences of these habits.
In terms of punch selection, Mbilli resembles the movie character Clubber Lang, Rocky’s antagonist in Rocky III, who threw nothing but hooks and seemed completely unaware of what a straight punch was. The Frenchman doesn’t quite go to that extreme, but he isn’t far from it either, given his preference for wide, fully loaded hooks and his limited inclination to throw straight punches.
Above-average punching power and a strong chin make him an extremely difficult opponent to deal with.
What Does Canelo Have Left? We’ll Soon Find Out…
It’s difficult to say how much Alvarez still has to offer at the highest level of professional boxing. The Mexican is not particularly old (he turned 36 in July), but he has been fighting professionally since he was 15 and has already competed in no fewer than 68 bouts, with all the physical wear and tear that entails.
For several fights now, Canelo has appeared to be on the decline. His explosiveness, in particular, seems to have partially faded, and it is no coincidence that his last knockout victory dates all the way back to 2021.
On Saturday, his ability to hurt his opponent could prove extremely valuable, because keeping a living hurricane like Mbilli under control without discouraging him with sharp, heavy counterpunches could be an extremely difficult task, even for a fighter with the outstanding technical skills of the former unified world champion.
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction!
Let’s be perfectly clear: at his peak, Saul Alvarez would almost certainly have demolished Christian Mbilli, knocking him out in spectacular fashion. Reckless fighters with an overly aggressive and undisciplined offensive style were prime targets for Canelo at his best, as he masterfully exploited every single mistake with his devastating counters.
The fight would probably have unfolded in a similar way to Alvarez vs Kirkland. The American was an explosive but undisciplined puncher, somewhat comparable to Mbilli in the ferocious and aggressive way he applied pressure.
Today, however, there is no guarantee that the famous Mexican boxer still possesses the spark needed to knock out a tough, athletically gifted fighter like the current champion. Even after taking clean shots, Mbilli might be able to withstand the punishment and continue marching forward.
Personally, I believe the opening rounds will strongly favor Canelo. With his superior technical skills and exceptional timing, he looks well equipped to land a considerable number of counterpunches, while limiting his opponent’s effectiveness through his defense, based on upper-body movement and the strategic use of his guard.
However, if Mbilli proves too tough to be taken out, the Frenchman’s relentless pressure could cause significant problems as the fight progresses, especially considering that Alvarez has tended to fade in the second half of his bouts over the past few years.
Predicting the outcome of this clash is far from easy, because much will depend on the physical condition in which the challenger enters the ring. At this stage of his career, following a lengthy layoff and elbow surgery, that remains a major unknown.
Nevertheless, as usual, I’ll put forward my prediction. I believe Alvarez will build a substantial lead during the first half of the fight before gradually becoming more defensive in the second half, minimizing the damage and danger, although not without going through some difficult moments.
I expect Mbilli to earn the crowd’s applause for his tremendous effort and to close the gap on the scorecards with a partial comeback. However, if I have to pick a winner, I think it makes more sense to favor Canelo’s superior all-around technical ability. In my opinion, he should still possess enough quality to avoid being overwhelmed and remain ahead when the final bell rings.
I therefore predict a narrow points victory for Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.