This Saturday, the main event of the card promoted by Frank Warren’s Queensberry Promotions at London’s O2 Arena will feature the vacant IBF World Heavyweight Title. Challenging for the belt will be British rising star Moses Itauma and experienced Croatian boxer Filip Hrgovic. Here is our full analysis of this intriguing matchup, including our final prediction!
Moses Itauma and the Last Questions Still to Be Answered
The 21-year-old prodigy who has dazzled experts and insiders despite his young age has already shown some genuine championship-level qualities. His hand speed, timing and variety of offensive options, made even more dangerous by his southpaw stance, make him an extremely fearsome heavyweight whom no active fighter could afford to take lightly without risking serious consequences.
So what does he still need to prove before he can be hailed as the next dominant force in the division?
The questions still to be answered naturally concern how he handles adversity — something Itauma, like many highly touted prospects on the rise, has yet to experience.
No opponent has landed a full-power shot flush on his chin. No one has forced him into a grueling ten- or twelve-round fight. No one has pinned him against the ropes and unloaded a sustained barrage of punches.
The chin, stamina and mental toughness of the Englishman of Slovakian descent have therefore yet to be truly tested. Only once that happens will we be able to fully assess the youngster’s true level.
Filip Hrgovic: Solid, Powerful and Experienced, but Also Predictable
The underdog in this fight has a considerable edge in amateur experience over his opponent — more than 100 bouts in the amateurs, compared with Itauma’s mere 24 — along with an Olympic bronze medal and extensive experience in the World Series of Boxing, which helped him make the transition to the professional ranks.
Hrgovic is a technically sound boxer with an imposing frame, a solid chin and serious punching power, and he should therefore not be underestimated.
Less impressive, however, are his hand speed, which is certainly nothing spectacular, and his unpredictability. The Croatian tends to rely on his one-two almost relentlessly, with very few variations, making his offense rather one-dimensional and relatively easy for his opponent to read.
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction!
One factor that appears destined to play an absolutely decisive role in this fight is the difference in speed between the two boxers.
Itauma throws his punches at virtually twice the speed of Hrgovic, a gap that becomes particularly striking when looking at their respective performances against their common opponent, Demsey McKean.
Hrgovic needed twelve rounds to stop the Australian, and even lost some rounds during the second half of the fight because of his difficulty finding his opponent and getting his punches off at the right moment whenever McKean took the initiative.
Four months later, Itauma dispatched the same opponent in less than two minutes, devastating him with a left hand that McKean never even saw coming.
Generally speaking, the transitive property does not apply to boxing, and it would be risky to draw overly definitive conclusions from the two fighters’ performances against the same opponent.
Nevertheless, the enormous discrepancy in speed suggests that Hrgovic could find himself with his weapons blunted on Saturday night.
Two scenarios appear to be the most likely.
If the Croatian adopts an aggressive, swaggering approach in an attempt to intimidate his younger opponent and shake his confidence, he will most likely be caught in the center of the ring and sent crashing to the canvas in short order.
If, on the other hand, Hrgovic is fully aware of the danger, stays on the outside and prioritizes defense, the fight could go considerably longer, because in that case Itauma would probably take the opportunity to test himself over a longer distance without taking unnecessary risks.
Between these two possibilities, and in keeping with the usual guessing game of this column — predicting both the dynamics and the outcome of the fight — I will go for a middle ground.
I envisage an aggressive Hrgovic being rocked or dropped early, before subsequently taking a more cautious approach in an attempt to avoid being stopped.
I believe Itauma will apply his pressure patiently and intelligently, letting his hands go at the right moments and taking the necessary steps back to make Hrgovic’s counters miss, before stepping up the pressure once he feels he has the situation under control.
Hrgovic has shown several times throughout his career that stamina is not among his greatest strengths. Given that he will have to expend a great deal of physical and mental energy simply to contain the extremely dangerous attacks coming his way, I believe that by the middle of the fight he will already be running on empty and ready to be stopped.
My prediction, therefore, is a Moses Itauma knockout victory between the sixth and eighth rounds.