This Saturday, in a sold-out Wembley Stadium, the world heavyweight unification bout will take place between WBC, WBA, and WBO champion Oleksandr Usyk and IBF belt holder Daniel Dubois. Will the Ukrainian superstar manage to preserve his undefeated record and confirm himself as the best heavyweight on the planet at age 38? Or will Dubois shock the world by reversing the outcome of their 2023 clash, in which he was stopped by knockout?
Low Blow: Yes or No? A Look Back at the First Fight
When analyzing a rematch, it’s inevitable to revisit what happened when the two fighters first shared the ring. On that occasion, Usyk imposed himself in dominant fashion, stopping Dubois in the ninth round while clearly ahead on the scorecards. Yet, some still argue about a particular episode that shaped that bout.
It happened in the fifth round when Dubois landed a vicious right uppercut that sent Usyk to the canvas. Referee Luis Pabon immediately stopped the clock and gave the Ukrainian time to recover, ruling that the blow had landed in a prohibited area.
From my point of view, that decision was absolutely correct: Dubois’s punch struck below the imaginary line that runs through the navel. You can tell by looking at the position of Usyk’s left elbow, perfectly placed to protect his midsection.
What I find far more interesting, however, is what happened after that controversial moment. Usyk, furious over what he considered an intentional foul, dramatically raised the pace, wearing Dubois down to the point of knocking him out with a simple jab.
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction
Following his painful defeat to Usyk, Dubois managed to rebuild his career in admirable fashion, showing improvements both technically and mentally.
Already in his win over Jarrell Miller, the British heavyweight demonstrated great focus, refusing to be rattled by his opponent’s relentless pressure, defending in an orderly manner and punishing the American severely once he ran out of gas. Even more impressive was Dubois’s victory over Hrgovic, where he withstood several brutal right hands before turning the fight around and breaking down the giant Croatian.
However, Dubois’s true masterpiece came in September of last year, when he knocked out Anthony Joshua after dropping him three times. In that performance, Daniel showcased, among other things, an excellent advancing double jab that helped him open the way for follow-up combinations and left the more highly regarded Joshua in huge trouble.
Despite these convincing showings, I remain unconvinced that Dubois has developed the tools needed to seriously trouble the undisputed king of the division. Usyk still holds a clear edge in terms of speed, stamina, reflexes, and footwork—and to put him in check, Dubois would have to solve a very complex puzzle.
If the British fighter swings with full force like he did against Hrgovic and Joshua, he may end up missing all night long. That wide, telegraphed right hand which floored AJ at the end of the first round, for instance, would be seen coming a mile away by Usyk.
On the other hand, trying to rely on volume punching could expose the hometown hero to the same doomed fate he suffered in 2023: running out of steam too early for having spent too long fighting on his opponent’s terms, trying in vain to outbox a master technician.
Of course, Usyk’s age is a factor that cannot be entirely dismissed, and Dubois’s tremendous power could change everything with a single shot. After all, in the heavyweight division more than any other, one second of carelessness can be fatal.
However, if we consider that the phenomenal Ukrainian fighter looked to be in excellent shape in his last outing, and if we acknowledge that his boxing isn’t just built on superior athleticism but also on elite technical skill, the most likely outcome remains another Usyk triumph.
Perhaps this time the fighter from Simferopol will take a little longer than he did two years ago to wear down his formidable foe. Perhaps Dubois will make the necessary adjustments to avoid fading past the halfway point. But in the end, I believe the Wembley crowd will find themselves applauding the Ukrainian maestro. I predict a win for Oleksandr Usyk by knockout in one of the final three rounds of the fight.