In just a few days, Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) will return to the ring to face Puerto Rican challenger Edgar “The Chosen One” Berlanga (22-0-0, 17 KOs) this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The bout will be the main event of a card organized by TGB Promotions, headed by Tom Brown. The fight will be for the WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight titles and in Italy it will be broadcast on PPV via DAZN for €19.99, with the broadcast starting at 2:00 AM.
Saul Alvarez: Slight Decline, but Still Dominating
Since his crushing defeat against the powerful Russian light heavyweight Dmitry Bivol in May 2022, Canelo seems to have lost a step compared to his prime. While he still possesses world-class skills, in recent fights, the Mexican has shown a slight dip in his responsiveness, explosiveness, and consistency. He’s likely noticed this himself, which explains the more cautious approach to his career, as we discussed in our recent deep dive into the four phases of Canelo’s career (read here). Though no longer at the level of his second fight against Gennady Golovkin, which was likely his peak performance, Alvarez has developed such an extensive tactical, technical, and experiential skill set over time that he can remain at the top for years to come, much like American great Bernard Hopkins, another master of tactical control and defense who prolonged his career despite aging.
Edgar Berlanga: Is There More Than Just Incredible Power?
During the early part of his career, as Berlanga racked up one first-round KO after another (16 in a row), I couldn’t help but think, “Let’s hope he doesn’t turn into another Tyrone Brunson!” Berlanga’s string of quick victories reminded me of the American fighter, who starting in April 2005, collected 19 consecutive first-round KOs but went on to have a mediocre career. Berlanga has already proven to be superior to Brunson, but as the quality of his opponents has improved, he’s shown several weaknesses that concern his fans ahead of this week’s super-fight. Despite confirming his power and explosiveness in both hands, “The Chosen One” has displayed deficiencies in his jab, footwork, and even his chin—something that should be one of his greatest assets given his aggressive fighting style. Berlanga will need to make significant improvements in all these areas to stand a chance against a rival who cannot be beaten solely by a lucky punch.
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction
There’s no point in sugarcoating it: based on the fighters’ characteristics and the level they’ve shown throughout their careers, Saturday’s bout is likely to be a huge mismatch. Edgar Berlanga, who has struggled to decisively defeat third-tier opponents like Marcelo Coceres and Steve Rolls in recent years, will suddenly find himself on a stage unlike any he’s seen before, except on TV, and facing one of the best boxers of the last decade.
What’s more, the stylistic matchup heavily favors Alvarez. The Mexican has always excelled against static, aggressive punchers, against whom he can make the most of his exceptional counter-punching abilities.
Given that Canelo has lately been managing his energy more carefully, and assuming Berlanga won’t recklessly launch into a suicidal offensive attack, the early rounds are likely to proceed at a relatively slow pace.
The champion, vastly superior from a technical standpoint, will likely use his jab—a weapon he has refined over the years—to keep his opponent at bay while occasionally mixing in strong, sudden shots to establish control early on.
The challenger, who I believe will keep a tight, high guard during the opening rounds, will eventually face a critical decision: stay passive and defensive, allowing himself to be bombarded up and down in the hopes of lasting as long as possible, or embrace his identity as a power puncher and go for broke, attempting to land his best combinations.
Typically, a young and undefeated fighter has immense confidence in his abilities, sometimes too much, which leads me to believe that sooner or later, Berlanga, frustrated by an opening phase that will almost certainly not go in his favor, will try to turn the tide by abandoning caution and loading up his punches.
If this happens, the fight will likely head toward an early conclusion. Canelo’s pinpoint accuracy and excellent timing, combined with Berlanga’s less-than-stellar chin, could lead to a violent and spectacular knockout in favor of the Guadalajara fighter if exchanges intensify at the center of the ring.
A warrior with hands as heavy as Berlanga’s can never be completely written off, but the champion’s experience, defensive skills, and superior chin make an upset hard to imagine. My prediction is a stoppage victory for Saul Alvarez between the fourth and sixth rounds.