This Saturday, at the Kokugikan in Tokyo, local idol Junto Nakatani (27-0-0, 20 KOs) will defend his WBC bantamweight world title against Filipino challenger Vincent “Asero” Astrolabio (19-4-0, 14 KOs) in an event organized by Akihiko Honda’s Teiken Promotions. For Nakatani, this will be his first defense of the belt he won in February at the expense of Mexican Alexandro Santiago.
Junto Nakatani: Out-fighter Physique, In-fighter Heart
Some trainers, especially at lower levels, try to impose a certain style on their fighters based primarily on their physical measurements. Taller fighters with long arms are urged to move along the ropes, relying almost exclusively on their straight punches, while more compact fighters are trained to always go inside, seeking a brawl. Nothing could be more wrong: a boxer’s natural inclinations cannot always be deduced from their physique. Boxing history is full of tall, lanky athletes who excel in close combat, and shorter fighters who control fights from a distance thanks to their timing and speed. Junto Nakatani is the living proof of this argument: despite his 172 centimeters allowing him to look down on almost all his opponents, the Japanese fighter thrives in close exchanges, showcasing some of his best qualities up close, from punch variety to bodywork, brutal power, and surgical precision.
Vincent Astrolabio: Very Normal People
The Filipino challenger will probably never become a VIP in boxing because, while he does everything reasonably well, none of his qualities excel enough to push him among the best of his era. His power is good, but not devastating; his chin is solid, but not indestructible; his technical stance is adequate, but not astonishing; his work rate is decent, but certainly not overwhelming. In short, Astrolabio is one of those “Very Normal People” in boxing who manage to carve out a leading role by relying on their determination and taking advantage of their opponents’ specific weaknesses. It is no coincidence that the best victory of the Filipino’s career came against the renowned Guillermo Rigondeaux, a more talented boxer whose indolence, as usual, translated into low offensive productivity, allowing Astrolabio to be favored by the judges. No matter how the fight goes this Saturday, it’s a safe bet that the Filipino will get more calls and future opportunities given the spirit with which he earns his keep between the ropes.
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction!
Some recent opponents, such as the aforementioned Rigondeaux and Australian Jason Moloney, decided to leave Astrolabio the center of the ring, fighting off the back foot and showing great respect for his close combat skills. However, it seems highly unlikely that Nakatani will grant him the same courtesies, given that the Japanese fighter has had no qualms about engaging in open exchanges even against boxers known for their explosive power and high knockout percentages. Since Astrolabio himself is unlikely to fight an elusive match, lacking the necessary foot speed and other characteristics to attempt it, we will most likely witness a vibrant close-range battle between two warriors intent on imposing their will with force. In this scenario, Junto Nakatani is undoubtedly the leading candidate to take control, being the more complete, varied, and imaginative fighter in his offensive actions. For every punch Astrolabio lands, it is very likely that three or four will come back in response, forcing him into a grueling fight from the first bell. If the challenger had a granite chin, we might expect a dynamic similar to what we saw a year and a half ago between Nakatani and ring veteran Francisco Rodriguez Jr., who managed to hear the final bell despite suffering a clear but dignified defeat. However, the 2018 precedent where Astrolabio succumbed inside the distance to the not-so-formidable Yuki Kobayashi, although dated, does not bode well for the Filipino’s chances of staying on his feet for twelve rounds. The writer’s feeling is that Nakatani will carry out a progressive demolition job, gradually breaking down the opponent’s physical resistance before knocking him out after sufficiently softening him up. Therefore, I predict a stoppage victory for Junto Nakatani in the second half of the fight, shortly after the midpoint.