October 12, 2024, is a date marked in red on the calendars of all boxing enthusiasts, and the moment of truth is fast approaching. This Saturday night at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, the stage is set for Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitrii Bivol, a match that promises to be a milestone in the history of the light heavyweight division. On the line are all four world titles from the major boxing organizations (WBC, WBA, IBF, and WBO), and the winner will earn a rightful place among the greatest fighters of recent times.
Artur Beterbiev: The Most Underrated Fighter in the World?
It often happens that punchers with devastating power are unfairly treated by casual boxing fans, whose untrained eyes only see the surface of a fight without grasping the nuances. Just like Gennady Golovkin before him, Artur Beterbiev is described by many fans as a brute, an ungraceful attacker whose success relies solely on the natural physical gifts he was born with. Nothing could be further from the truth. Not only does Beterbiev’s stellar amateur record (295 wins and only 5 losses) refute this claim, but so does a careful and objective analysis of his performances in the ring. Many of Beterbiev’s overwhelming attacks start with perfect counters in the center of the ring (his right hook over his opponent’s jab is sublime). His jab, a fundamental tool for any technically proficient boxer, is not only heavy but precise and varied in trajectory. His ability to free his arms during clinches and deliver damaging blows that seem harmless is the result of years of refinement. In short, Beterbiev has far more resources at his disposal than just raw power.
Dmitrii Bivol: A Man or a Cyborg?
There’s one particular moment, just a few seconds long, that perfectly captures Dmitrii Bivol’s typical approach in the ring. It was the fifth round of his fight against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, a crucial match for Bivol. Its outcome (as it happened) could elevate his status to legendary and bring him massive future earnings. Bivol managed to trap Alvarez against the ropes and unleashed a barrage of powerful punches; not all of them landed clean, but at least three pierced Canelo’s defense, which he didn’t appreciate. Almost any other boxer would have been swept up by the adrenaline and launched a desperate attack to finish off the opponent. But not Bivol. He took a step back, ignored Canelo’s invitation to continue, and motioned for him to come forward. That’s just how Bivol is — like a cyborg programmed to follow a tactical plan, indifferent to any external stimulus, be it boos from the crowd or his own emotions. He continues coldly weaving his web, leaving his prey helpless until he secures victory.
Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitrii Bivol: What Will Happen? Boxe Punch Prediction!
Sometimes a boxer nearing 40 can still give the impression of being in his prime. This perception, which is wrong in the vast majority of cases, arises from the fact that modern fighters only box once or twice a year. When matched against the right opponent, they can easily appear to be in sparkling form, even though they may have lost the sharpness, speed, and stamina of their younger days.
In other dynamic sports, where athletes compete frequently against a wide variety of opponents, it’s much more apparent that a 40-year-old cannot perform at the same athletic level as they could a decade earlier. And while there have undoubtedly been exceptional cases of champions able to compete at the highest levels in their advanced years thanks to their extraordinary skill, such as Paolo Maldini in football or LeBron James in basketball, no one would dare say that their physical performance was the same at their peak as it was at the end of their careers.
I opened with this premise to state that, despite Beterbiev’s recent dominant wins, he can no longer be the same boxer who dismantled expert international opponents with ease in his early professional years. While many would disagree, his recent victories over Anthony Yarde and Callum Smith have given us some clues in this regard.
Against Yarde, a powerful and dangerous fighter with notable technical flaws, Beterbiev scored a sensational KO, but he had to absorb a worrying number of dangerous punches, some of which clearly troubled him.
Against Smith, a fighter whose static footwork and stiff upper body seemed tailor-made to showcase Beterbiev’s strengths, the Russian won convincingly without taking any risks. However, he took significant breaks between his offensive bursts, appearing overly concerned with carefully managing his energy — something that wouldn’t have been as much of a priority in the past.
This slight decline in athletic performance due to age could exacerbate three fundamental problems that Beterbiev will face against an elite boxer like Dmitrii Bivol.
The first issue is Beterbiev’s habit of setting up exchanges in the center of the ring before pushing his stunned opponent against the ropes. This will be incredibly difficult to implement against Bivol. With his in-and-out movement, rapid hand positioning after throwing punches, and lightning-fast reflexes, Bivol is exceptionally hard to catch off guard.
To create favorable situations, Beterbiev will have to take risks with a more aggressive approach to close the distance, limiting Bivol’s space for movement. However, when he does manage to push his opponent back, Beterbiev will face his second problem: Bivol is one of the best in the world at defending against the ropes.
Both Canelo and Zurdo Ramirez managed to corner Bivol multiple times and position themselves to land damaging blows. However, both struggled immensely to land clean shots because Bivol could read their intentions with near-prophetic foresight and escape their traps unscathed.
Instead of stubbornly seeking the perfect shot, Beterbiev would be better off hammering anything he can — body, arms, shoulders, gloves — in the hope that his superhuman power will wear down his opponent’s freshness. This leads us to the third problem: to make this demolition strategy work, it needs to be executed with a very high pace and continuity.
Some say Bivol will need a “perfect fight” to win because even a small mistake could lead to his downfall. I personally disagree with this idea. Beterbiev has increasingly won his fights not with a single decisive punch but through prolonged punishment, built through significant amounts of effective work.
Thus, to win, Dmitrii Bivol doesn’t need a miracle — certainly not the impossible task of never getting hit. Instead, he must avoid getting hit too often, and in this regard, his age advantage could work in his favor. However, the Kyrgyz-born boxer will have a significant issue of his own to keep in mind: the inevitable need to reach the later rounds with more fuel in the tank than his opponent.
Bivol’s style is almost unique in the world of boxing. His incessant footwork is reminiscent of the Uzbek amateur boxing school, which dazzled the world at the last Olympics by collecting medals: a school seemingly less suited to professional boxing due to the immense energy expenditure required over twelve rounds.
Yet the phenomenal Russian athlete has only shown signs of fatigue in the “championship rounds” once — against Craig Richards, with the caveat of a year-and-a-half layoff due to the pandemic. That time, Bivol started to stop moving more often in the later rounds. While he didn’t take any significant risks, a similar approach against a killer like Beterbiev could prove fatal.
Along with controlling the situation and accumulating points, the WBA champion should ensure his punches land and keep his opponent constantly under pressure, preventing him from preserving enough energy to mount a dramatic late rally that could turn the fight in Beterbiev’s favor.
The writer considers Artur Beterbiev to be an extraordinary boxer who, with better management and fewer injuries, could have established himself as one of the best light heavyweights of all time. However, I believe that this time, his opponent’s style, age, and skills will present an insurmountable obstacle.
In my view, Bivol will control the fight for long stretches with his jab, one-two combinations, and masterful distance control, gritting his teeth and minimizing damage in the inevitable close-quarters exchanges. I predict a clear points victory for Dmitrii Bivol, not without moments of suffering, but with a significant margin in the final score (around six points).