The big day is approaching, and boxing fans’ anticipation grows by the hour. This Saturday, at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, the two best light heavyweights in the world will once again face off to determine, once and for all, who is the undisputed number one in the division. Yesterday, we provided our analysis of the six undercard fights. Now, it’s time to focus on the main event: here is our in-depth breakdown, complete with a final prediction, of Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitrii Bivol 2!
What Happened in the First Fight
As is well known, the winner of the first clash between these two fighters, held in Riyadh on October 12 last year, was Artur Beterbiev. He was awarded a Majority Decision by the judges—a verdict that did not convince everyone. Most experts, including respected journalists and industry insiders, were split between a draw and a narrow victory for Bivol, with a few exceptions, such as renowned trainer Teddy Atlas, who instead praised the official decision.
Personally, I had Bivol two points ahead at the end of the live broadcast. However, after rewatching the fight a few days later, I reassessed one round (the tenth) and ended up scoring it a perfect draw. Beyond a couple of extra points that could be attributed to one fighter or the other depending on one’s judging criteria, I firmly believe that Beterbiev and Bivol, when all was said and done, were evenly matched that night.
Bivol undoubtedly started better, boxing brilliantly in the first four rounds. Beterbiev then gained ground, increasingly closing the distance and landing solid shots in the middle rounds. Bivol gradually regained control, reaching the pinnacle of his boxing mastery in a superb ninth round. However, from the middle of the tenth onward, Beterbiev went on a rampage, launching an all-out assault in the final stretch.
Such a razor-thin balance makes predicting what might happen in the rematch incredibly difficult, as even the smallest variable could tip the scale one way or the other. To be honest, over the past month, I’ve changed my prediction multiple times. So, let’s take a closer look at the main reasons why Beterbiev could win—and those that favor Bivol instead.
Three Reasons Why Artur Beterbiev Might Win
The Meniscus Issue Is Now in the Past
The first fight between these two was originally scheduled for June 1 last year but was postponed for about four months due to a meniscus injury that required surgery for Beterbiev.
Of course, the rescheduling was done to allow him full recovery, but no one can say for sure whether the injury had any lingering effects—whether physically or even psychologically—on Beterbiev’s training and movement during sparring.
Now that a significant amount of time has passed since the injury, if the Dagestani fighter can move better and display improved footwork in the rematch, cutting off the ring more effectively and trapping his opponent against the ropes more often, Bivol could be in serious trouble…
The Awareness of His Power Advantage
When two fighters meet for the first time, there’s always a certain hesitation in taking risks. Neither knows exactly how the other’s punches will affect them, and this tension tends to slow the action in the early rounds before the fight truly unfolds.
Now, we know that Bivol’s best shots barely made a dent in Beterbiev. Even after taking several clean, heavy shots to the face, Beterbiev never stopped marching forward. On the other hand, Beterbiev’s punches clearly troubled Bivol: every time he landed cleanly, Bivol retreated into a passive defense for several seconds.
This awareness—that his power is far more devastating than his opponent’s, combined with the confidence that he can withstand Bivol’s attacks—could make Beterbiev more aggressive right from the start, eliminating the early-round advantage on the scorecards that Bivol managed to build in October.
Bivol’s Potential Over-Eagerness to Impress
A fighter’s pre-fight statements shouldn’t always be taken at face value. Many of them are mind games, intended to mislead the opponent with false hints about the planned strategy.
That said, I couldn’t help but raise an eyebrow when I noticed that Dmitrii Bivol’s recent comments suggest he might opt for a more assertive, aggressive approach this time—to convince the judges of his superiority.
This would align with the views of those who, after the first fight, criticized Bivol for being too passive, blaming his lack of urgency for the loss. In my opinion, this is a misguided take, as I explained months ago in an opinion piece (read here).
If Bivol tries to “overdo it” just to impress the judges, he risks walking straight into the lion’s den.
Three Reasons Why Dmitrii Bivol Could Win
Greater Room for Improvement
Over the years of following international boxing, I have come to believe that in rematches, the fighter with superior technical skills is often the one most likely to improve their performance.
A boxer with exceptional mastery of the fundamentals has more tactical options to choose from, greater adaptability, and the ability to change strategies on the fly based on the fight’s needs.
While I have long argued that Beterbiev’s technical abilities are significantly underrated and that he is far more than just a crude power puncher, I think there is little doubt that Bivol surpasses him in this specific area. This suggests that it is the fighter who lost the first match who is more likely to bring something new to the ring, potentially shifting the balance.
The Age Factor
Artur Beterbiev turned 40 just a month ago, and while he displayed an outstanding physical condition in their first fight, at his age, every day takes a toll like a month, and every month weighs like a year in sporting terms.
Given his impeccable professionalism and considering his fighting style, it is highly unlikely that Beterbiev will experience a sudden and dramatic decline. However, given how evenly matched the first fight was, even the slightest deterioration in his reflexes and reaction speed could tilt the fight in Bivol’s favor.
Moreover, only a little over four months have passed since their last battle in Riyadh. This means the champion hasn’t had much time to recover before diving into another grueling training camp. And if the sport’s most long-lasting greats, like Oleksandr Usyk, Terence Crawford, and Erislandy Lara, tend to take longer breaks between fights, there must be a reason for that…
Beterbiev’s Possible Complacency
This may seem like a trivial or insignificant detail, but ever since I started following Artur Beterbiev’s career years ago, I have never seen him smile as often as he has in these past few months. The Russian fighter appears happy and relaxed, even indulging in some lighthearted moments during interviews.
One of the key factors behind Beterbiev’s ability to maintain such outstanding physical condition at 40 has been his extraordinary work ethic. He has always been a tireless worker, motivated by his hunger for success, approaching every training session and fight with the determination of a man fighting for his survival.
Now that he has finally reached the absolute pinnacle of the sport—after more than 300 amateur fights and nearly 12 years as a professional, overcoming injuries and managerial struggles along the way—he may have developed a sense of satisfaction. If this has made him even slightly less aggressive or hungry in the ring, Bivol could take full advantage of it.
My Prediction
Which of the many factors discussed in this piece will ultimately prove decisive? It’s impossible to say with certainty. The need to make a prediction forces me to rely on an instinctual feeling rather than a purely analytical assessment.
I expect another razor-close fight, with momentum shifting between the two, tense moments keeping us on the edge of our seats, and a suspenseful atmosphere that will have our hearts pounding until the final bell. A fight in which Bivol might be able to introduce some new wrinkles to his game, possibly securing one or two more rounds than last time.
Four months ago, fate saw two out of three judges favor Beterbiev’s aggression and explosive power. This time, however, I have a gut feeling—impossible to justify logically—that Bivol’s clean punching, elegance, precision, and supreme technique will earn greater recognition.
I predict a razor-thin points victory for Dmitrii Bivol, setting the stage for an unmissable third fight.