Tomorrow will be a big day for boxing. There are several fights not to be missed, but two stand out above the rest. Around 2:00 PM Italian time, Naoya Inoue and Junto Nakatani will take center stage in Tokyo in what, in terms of stakes and the level of the fighters involved, can be considered the greatest all-Japanese showdown in boxing history. Later that night, Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez will put his belts on the line in Las Vegas against the ambitious challenger David Benavidez. Here is our preview of both fights, along with the final predictions!
Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani – WBA, WBC, IBF and WBO super bantamweight world titles
When two fighters with devastating punching power face each other, fans always expect an all-out war. However, the opening stages of this highly anticipated Japanese derby could turn out to be more tactical than expected. For different reasons, neither fighter has much interest in going for the kill after the opening bell.
Nakatani knows he will be facing one of the most lethal punchers in the world, a man who has knocked out 27 of the 32 opponents he has faced as a professional. He also knows that Inoue has been dropped hard by Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas with left hooks while attacking. Therefore, he will most likely try to wait, draw his opponent in, lure him into a trap, and then unleash his deadly left hand.
Inoue, on his part, has adopted a more cautious and calculated style in his last two fights—a choice that seems based not only on lessons learned when he was put in danger, but also on the awareness that he must prepare for high-risk matchups like tomorrow’s. I expect to see him attack with control for several minutes, managing his output and studying his countryman to find the right openings.
However, this scenario cannot last too long. Whoever feels behind on the scorecards will need to increase the pace. Moreover, every time one of them absorbs a heavy shot—and there will certainly be plenty of heavy shots given the power involved—he will want to respond in kind. I therefore believe that as the rounds go by, this fight will gradually turn into a tremendous battle that will send the crowd into a frenzy.
Personally, I believe that in such a wild exchange, Inoue will come out on top. Nakatani has all the tools to make it competitive, to win rounds, and to land meaningful shots, but I don’t see him knocking out the Monster with a single blow, nor inflicting more damage than he himself will have to endure.
Too often in his career, Junto has been the best puncher in the ring. Too often he has been able to sacrifice his reach to thrive at close range without paying the price. Too often he hasn’t needed alternative strategies—and I don’t believe he will be able to implement them effectively enough tomorrow to neutralize a generational talent like Inoue.
I predict a victory for Naoya Inoue by knockout after the ninth round.
Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez vs David Benavidez – WBA and WBO cruiserweight world titles
In my opinion, the key factor in this fight will be speed.
Many observers have noted that Ramirez’s performances have improved as he moved up in weight, to the point that he now seems to have reached his peak at cruiserweight. However, few have correctly identified the reason behind this apparent improvement—at least in my view.
What held Ramirez back at super middleweight and light heavyweight, in my opinion, wasn’t the weight cut itself, but rather the fact that his lack of agility and fluid movement became more problematic against smaller, faster opponents. It’s no coincidence that when Zurdo faced a solid but static fighter like Arthur Abraham, he delivered an excellent performance, whereas years later, when he met a master of footwork and timing like Bivol, he was completely outclassed.
Since moving up to cruiserweight, Ramirez has thrived against bigger fighters who rely heavily on physical strength—such as Goulamirian and Billam-Smith—powerful and aggressive, but clearly less agile and quick.
For this reason, I believe Benavidez’s hand speed—famously exceptional—will cause serious problems for the champion, especially in the first half of the fight, when “Bandera Roja” will be fresh and able to maintain his usual high punch output.
Even if he falls behind on the scorecards, I don’t think Ramirez will be overwhelmed. Backed by his toughness and experience, he will stubbornly keep trying to turn things around.
I believe that the Benavidez of a few years ago—defensively careless, one-dimensional, and without a real plan B—would have suffered greatly in the later rounds of this fight. However, I also think that “Bandera Roja” has shown significant improvements over time and is now a much more complete fighter, capable not only of destroying but also of managing a fight. Therefore, I don’t expect any dramatic late turnaround from Zurdo.
I predict a unanimous decision victory for David Benavidez, with margins of around six points on the scorecards.