This Saturday, the O2 Arena in London will host a fascinating clash between two high-level heavyweights. The main event of the Queensberry Promotions card, organized by Frank Warren, will feature experienced New Zealander Joseph Parker taking on the heavy-handed Englishman Fabio Wardley.
Joseph Parker: reborn fighter or lucky fighter?
There are two ways to interpret the latest phase of Joseph Parker’s career, marked by three consecutive wins over Deontay Wilder, Zhilei Zhang, and Martin Bakole.
On one hand, one might argue that the New Zealand boxer has reached a level he had never achieved before, thanks to the experience gained in the ring and the guidance of his coach Andy Lee.
On the other hand, it could also be said that those three triumphs were helped by a touch of good fortune. Wilder was probably already on the decline, Zhang, also aging, was ahead before running out of gas, and Bakole accepted the fight on short notice, entering the ring completely out of shape.
Fabio Wardley: how many wild cards are left in the deck?
At least twice, Wardley has managed to avoid defeat by pulling a wild card from his deck. In his first fight against Frazer Clarke, a knockdown in the fifth round proved decisive in securing a draw on the official scorecards. Against Justis Huni, a thunderous right hand completely turned the tables while the English puncher was clearly behind.
These experiences may have convinced the 30-year-old Brit that he can always get away by landing the perfect punch and turning around even the toughest situations. However, boxing history is full of fighters who, relying on a single knockout blow, eventually suffered crushing defeats when their magic trick failed to work. Will Wardley share that fate, or will he reveal some unexpected weapons?
What will happen? Boxe Punch’s prediction
It’s not easy to guess which tactical approach Joseph Parker will adopt for this fight. The New Zealander could go with two different strategies, each with its own pros and cons.
On one hand, he could choose a cautious, counterpunching style to reduce the risk of being caught by a huge shot, as happened to the overly aggressive Huni. Being the better jab user, Parker could exploit his defensive skills to neutralize Wardley’s attacks, countering and scoring points as the rounds go by.
The downside is that this could allow the English power puncher to dictate the pace. Controlling the center of the ring and setting the rhythm, Wardley could gain confidence and feed off the crowd’s energy. As the aggressor, he might also have a better chance of convincing the judges in close rounds.
A completely opposite yet logical alternative would be for Parker to attack Wardley, pushing him back and taking him out of his comfort zone. Parker did something similar against Deontay Wilder, showing excellent timing and composure in closing the distance without getting caught by his opponent’s dangerous right hand.
It would be a strategy similar to Huni’s, and indeed, Wardley often looked out of his depth in that bout — but that same fight, with its shocking ending, exposed the risks of being too bold against the powerful heavyweight from Ipswich.
So, what will Andy Lee come up with for his fighter? My impression is that Parker will mix the two approaches, alternating between defensive caution and sudden bursts of aggression, to confuse and frustrate his opponent.
Wardley is an explosive puncher, immensely strong, and full of self-confidence. He cannot be written off. However, his technical flaws are too evident to consider him the favorite against an experienced, battle-tested boxer like Parker, who has faced several top-tier heavyweights throughout his career and should be able to read and counter Wardley’s attacks.
I expect the Englishman to have some good moments and to thrill the crowd with a few solid punches, but over twelve rounds, Parker’s superior skill set should make the difference. My prediction: Joseph Parker wins by decision, with margins of about six points on the scorecards.