On Monday we revealed the predictions of some great champions from the history of Italian boxing. Now it’s my turn to analyze this Saturday’s clash between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence Crawford, breaking down the technical and tactical aspects and, as usual, giving you my forecast on what I expect to happen in the ring. The card, which will take place at the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday night (going into Sunday morning), will be broadcast on Netflix.
Crawford’s power: a key element of past triumphs
Many of those predicting a Terence Crawford victory in this fight point to Canelo’s defeats against Mayweather Jr. and Bivol as proof. However, those two champions had one crucial trait that sets them apart from Crawford: the ability to win—and at times even dominate—big fights without necessarily shaking, dropping, or stunning their opponents.
Looking closely at Crawford’s career, one realizes that in most of his greatest wins, the American had to rely on his punching power to turn the tide in his favor. Against Gamboa, he struggled with the Cuban’s speed in the early rounds; against Brook, he clearly lost the jab battle in the opening two frames; against Porter and Madrimov, the scorecards remained close for a long stretch.
All of these fights were ultimately “resolved” by Crawford through the deadly effect of his punches, amplified by his surgical accuracy and his frightening killer instinct. This Saturday, however, Bud will be facing one of the best chins of the modern era, a fighter used to absorbing the shots of super middleweights and light heavyweights. What happens if his power proves inadequate?
Canelo’s decline: reality versus exaggeration
There’s no doubt that Saul Alvarez has been on a downward curve for a few years now. The Mexican hasn’t scored a knockout since November 2021, and after his loss to Bivol he’s shown a noticeable dip in reactivity, explosiveness, and dynamism.
But those who portray him as a washed fighter, essentially harmless at this point, are making a major mistake of exaggeration. It should not be overlooked that three of his last four opponents spent most of the twelve rounds in survival mode, satisfied simply to hear the final bell.
Canelo still retains the ability to inflict serious damage on physically strong opponents, and to do so with sharp, fast, and unpredictable punches, as seen in his beautiful knockdowns of Munguia and Berlanga. And when he faced a natural super welter like Charlo, who at 154 pounds had an imposing physical presence, one glancing shot was enough to put him down and make him as meek as a lamb…
What will happen? Boxe Punch’s prediction!
When two great champions face off, especially seasoned and battle-tested ones like Canelo and Crawford, it often takes a few rounds before the fight really heats up. Champions know they can’t risk getting caught cold by dangerous punches, they know they may need to manage their energy all the way to the last minute of the twelfth round, and they also know that carefully studying their opponent’s movements in the early going is the best way not to be caught off guard later.
So I don’t expect a blistering start full of fiery exchanges. I believe Bud will move cautiously, keeping outside his rival’s range, while Canelo will advance in small steps, well covered to avoid leaving openings for counters that could boost his opponent’s confidence. The Mexican will likely limit himself to a few sudden bursts of aggression to catch the judges’ attention.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if, after a few rounds, the scorecards were still very close, with observers divided over who won each frame. But soon the fight should open up, turning from a chess match into a battle of growing intensity.
On the one hand, Canelo has every interest in making close exchanges more and more frequent in order to capitalize on his size advantage. On the other hand, Crawford knows very well that to beat Canelo in Las Vegas he must win rounds convincingly, and with the extra weight he’s carrying—a burden unusual for him—he will hardly be able to move like a spinning top for 36 minutes.
As much as I deeply admire Bud’s technical, physical, and mental qualities, I don’t believe he will handle things smoothly once the exchanges intensify and fatigue sets in. His body language, when he absorbed the few heavy shots landed by Israil Madrimov at 154 pounds, did not convince me that he can move up further in weight without paying a price.
I therefore believe that Canelo’s power, though diminished compared to a few years ago, will become a significant factor in the second half of the fight, unsettling Crawford both physically and mentally and clearly swinging the bout in favor of the super middleweight world champion.
If the Canelo of five years ago were stepping into the ring—the one who marched forward for twelve rounds through the punches of the towering Callum Smith, breaking him down piece by piece and leaving him on the verge of collapse—I would have absolutely no doubt in giving the Mexican the edge.
Today, however, especially after witnessing the champion’s lackluster performance in his last fight against William Scull, I admit my certainties are less solid and I can see a small window for a huge upset. I cannot categorically rule out the possibility that on Sunday morning we might find ourselves celebrating an epic sporting feat and calling it a miracle.
Still, I find it more likely that we’ll be reminding each other that weight classes in boxing exist for a reason. My prediction, therefore, is a victory for Saul Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision with fairly wide margins on the scorecards.