Only one remains. One last fight and then, unless he changes his mind, Oleksandr Usyk will hang up his gloves and leave it to boxing historians to weigh his résumé and determine his place among the all-time greats of our beloved sport. Who will be given the coveted opportunity? And how likely is it that the Ukrainian, just before retiring, might suffer a shocking upset? In this piece, I’ll assess the chances of ten possible challengers pulling off the unthinkable — based, of course, on my personal (and entirely debatable) opinions.
Author’s Note:
Regardless of the predictions I’ll make in this article regarding each boxer’s chances, I firmly believe the fighter who deserves this opportunity is New Zealand’s Joseph Parker. Both international regulations and sporting merit point in his direction, and I sincerely hope that for once, the principles of ethics and fairness prevail over business interests.
Deontay Wilder
The best version of the Bronze Bomber might have had, however slim, a chance of landing that one big right hand. The current version, frankly, can’t even hope to catch lightning in a bottle. The Wilder we’ve seen in recent fights is not only slower and more fragile than in his prime, but also seems to have lost much of the brutal power that once made him feared. As things stand, his only hope of beating Usyk would be if the Ukrainian were injured during the fight.
Chance of victory: 2%
Andy Ruiz Jr
There’s a strange theory circulating online — mostly among people with no real credibility — claiming Ruiz has the right tools to give Usyk major problems. I personally see it the opposite way: I believe the Mexican, with his plodding footwork, prolonged pauses, and sleep-inducing rhythm, would have been thoroughly outclassed by the Ukrainian even on the night he shocked the world by knocking out Anthony Joshua. And today, the “Destroyer” looks like a former fighter, so giving him any real shot at winning is out of the question.
Chance of victory: 5%
Martin Bakole
According to the Congolese fighter himself, he has knocked everyone out, including Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois, during sparring sessions, or so he claims. But while words can be blown away by the wind, the facts are there for all to see, and they don’t bode well for Bakole’s hopes of ascending to the heavyweight throne. In his last fight, the African slugger earned a questionable draw against the unimpressive Efe Ajagba. Usyk, who appears three times faster, would only be at risk of losing if he broke his hands from hitting him too much.
Chance of victory: 8%
Anthony Joshua
The former world champion is technically superior to several fighters on this list who have been given higher odds of success. But in estimating a boxer’s chances, one must also consider motivation and mental state. After the devastating loss to Dubois, it’s hard to imagine Joshua stepping into the ring against a man who’s already beaten him twice without already being resigned to another defeat. And a fighter who’s mentally resigned can’t work miracles.
Chance of victory: 10%
Fabio Wardley
The British heavyweight shares some similarities with the first man on this list — Deontay Wilder — who no longer possesses his once-lethal weapon. Wardley’s missile, on the other hand, is still operational, as he proved less than two months ago by obliterating Justis Huni in the tenth round of a fight he was clearly losing. However, the gap in technique, footwork, defense, timing, jab use, and experience at the elite level is simply too wide in Usyk’s favor for Wardley to realistically hope to land the decisive blow.
Chance of victory: 12%
Agit Kabayel
Many believe Usyk is particularly vulnerable to body shots. I’m not so sure. I think the infamous uppercut he took in the first fight against Dubois was illegal. I also believe the body shot Murat Gassiev landed back in Usyk’s cruiserweight days, the one that clearly troubled him, could’ve floored a gorilla, and absorbing it without going down was more a show of strength than a sign of weakness. That said, if there’s one fighter with the right tools to test this alleged Achilles’ heel, it’s Kabayel. However, what we saw two weeks ago at Wembley suggests the German might struggle to apply his usual pressure…
Chance of victory: 15%
Joseph Parker
If Parker decided to go on the attack against Usyk, he’d miss for twelve straight rounds. Should he get the long-awaited shot, he’d be better off letting the Ukrainian make the first move, hoping to catch him with a counter, perhaps the uppercut that troubled Chisora or the overhand that flattened Bakole. But Usyk doesn’t walk straight in with his face as his main line of defense like those two did, and Parker’s lower work rate and lack of unpredictability would likely prove costly as the fight progressed. Still, the momentum from his recent wins and the smart guidance of Andy Lee suggest we shouldn’t count the Kiwi out just yet.
Chance of victory: 18%
Tyson Fury
I know most international pundits saw Usyk’s win in the highly anticipated rematch with Fury as relatively close, but personally, I didn’t give the Englishman more than two rounds (the first and the fifth). I believe Usyk has completely figured out the Gypsy King’s style by now and that Fury no longer has any weapons capable of surprising him. However, Tyson Fury has achieved the impossible more than once, both in and out of the ring. He’s a master trickster, and given that he came within a whisker of winning the first fight (at least on the official scorecards), it seems fair to give him a one-in-five shot at pulling off the upset.
Chance of victory: 20%
Moses Itauma
I’ll admit it: the first time I saw footage of this promising 20-year-old, I was blown away. His hand speed, fluid movement, and razor-sharp counterpunching — like a coiled rattlesnake — are incredibly rare in the heavyweight division. The fact that all this comes from someone so young only makes it more remarkable. Of course, the experience gap between him and Usyk is massive, and a win would rank as one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. But the explosiveness of his punches, combined with his southpaw stance, something Usyk hasn’t faced since 2016, makes me rank him higher in terms of upset potential than several more seasoned and decorated fighters.
Chance of victory: 22%
Jai Opetaia
Opetaia shares Itauma’s one-punch KO power, which has already shut off the lights for several opponents, and his southpaw stance, which, along with a diverse arsenal of punches, makes him highly unpredictable. Unlike the British prospect, however, the Australian cruiserweight has already performed on big stages and overcome major adversity, a factor that could help him in the monumental task of dethroning the heavyweight king.
In my view, the size difference wouldn’t be a decisive factor. Without the need to cut weight, Opetaia would show up heavier than usual and would be facing a “small” heavyweight by today’s standards. Paradoxically, being lighter could actually work in his favor. Usyk, who at 38 can’t be at the peak of his athletic prime, has been fighting slower, more stationary opponents in recent years. Suddenly facing a quick and agile fighter like Opetaia could throw him off.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m fully aware Opetaia still has a long way to go before establishing himself as a true elite. I even wrote an editorial urging caution to those overly praising the Aussie’s talent (click here to read the piece). Still, if I had to name, with a gun to my head, the one fighter who’d make a potential Usyk match the least predictable, I’d go with Opetaia. I don’t think he’d win… but I’d give him a better shot than the rest.
Chance of victory: 25%