The super middleweight division is about to crown an undisputed world champion once again. On Saturday night, Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will attempt to regain the IBF title currently held by Cuban fighter William Scull. The two will face off at The Venue Riyadh Season, in Saudi Arabia, in a card broadcast in Italy on DAZN via pay-per-view at a cost of €24.99. The broadcast will begin at 12:45 AM (Italian time), with the main event expected around 5:00 AM.
Saul Alvarez and the paradox of the missing belt
Canelo vacated the IBF belt last year because he wasn’t interested in facing the little-known mandatory challenger William Scull. Now he’s fighting William Scull because he is interested in reclaiming the IBF belt. It sounds like a joke, but that’s essentially what happened according to the parties involved. Most likely, the decorated Mexican fighter isn’t particularly interested in becoming undisputed champion again, but with a blockbuster bout against Terence Crawford already scheduled for September, being able to display all four major belts on posters and promotions might give the hype another push. Add to that the fact that Scull, who is not known for his power, presents minimal risk—limiting the chances of an upset that could jeopardize the super-fight planned for fall. So Canelo is set to earn yet another multi-million-dollar purse in a low-risk match. Will everything go according to plan?
William Scull: does he really deserve this shot?
The IBF belt ended up in the hands of the Cuban in somewhat controversial fashion. When Canelo chose to vacate the title, the IBF named William Scull and Russian boxer Vladimir Shishkin as co-challengers for the vacant title. Their fight, held in Germany—Scull’s adopted home—was far from thrilling and ended with a unanimous decision in favor of the Caribbean fighter after twelve dull rounds. Many observers, including the author of this article, believe Shishkin deserved to win and that home advantage played a bigger role than the action in the ring. Still, the bout highlighted Scull’s tactical style: highly cautious, reluctant to engage at center ring, preferring to move along the ropes behind a high guard, and launching sporadic, non-damaging attacks.
What will happen? Boxe Punch’s prediction!
Unfortunately for those buying the pay-per-view hoping for an exciting fight, there is good reason to believe this bout could resemble Canelo’s 2023 match against former super welterweight king Jermell Charlo.
In that fight, the American challenger spent most of the bout in survival mode—avoiding exchanges, hiding behind a high guard, and absorbing punches without meaningful responses.
Scull, unlike Charlo, is at least a natural super middleweight. But his extremely low work rate, lack of power, and aversion to close-range fighting suggest he won’t step into the ring with the intention of going to war or entertaining the fans.
If Scull looked timid and passive against Shishkin—who doesn’t possess Alvarez’s class, unpredictability, or technical depth—it’s highly likely he’ll be even more cautious this Saturday, circling endlessly and throwing very little.
Although Canelo performs best against aggressive opponents and can be uncomfortable chasing elusive, slippery fighters, sheer movement is not enough to trouble the Mexican. Scull lacks the timing, precision, and consistency needed to pull off a “Bivol-like” performance. Simply hearing the final bell seems to be the best outcome the IBF champion can realistically hope for.
Considering that Alvarez hasn’t scored a KO since 2021 and has shown signs of diminished explosiveness, I believe Scull will avoid serious damage and make it to the scorecards after a one-sided bout.
While I wouldn’t be shocked by a late stoppage, I predict a very wide points win for Canelo.