The big day is near: this Saturday, at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the world will finally discover who is the greatest heavyweight of this generation. Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury 2 has all the potential to become an epic showdown—one of those fights that keeps spectators on the edge of their seats with twist after twist, just like their first clash. Will the Gypsy King reclaim his belts, or will the Ukrainian maestro confirm his superiority and secure his place among the all-time greats?
Who Is the More Worn-Out Fighter?
It is always extremely challenging to predict the physical condition of an aging fighter—like both protagonists of Saturday’s bout—before they step into the ring. At the highest level, even a slight decline in performance due to age or wear and tear from past battles can decisively alter the outcome of a match. But which fighter, Usyk or Fury, is closer to the end of the road?
A simple age comparison would point to the Ukrainian fighter, who, at nearly 38 years old, is a year and a half older than his rival. However, anyone who follows sports knows that athletes age differently: some experience a sharp decline in their physical abilities soon after turning 30, while others continue delivering champion-level performances well into their 40s.
Fury’s Achilles’ heel has been his far-from-ideal lifestyle during certain periods of his life. History shows that the most enduring boxers are those who manage to avoid indulgences, staying in peak condition even during breaks from competition. With his constant weight fluctuations and the damage inflicted on his body during the phase when he fell into depression and gained excessive weight, Fury has undoubtedly accelerated the ticking of his “biological clock.”
Usyk, on the other hand, carries the burden of 350 amateur fights—a staggering number that could eventually take its toll. However, Fury has undoubtedly endured more grueling battles as a professional, not only for having stepped into the ring 14 more times but also for engaging in a greater number of all-out wars, as evidenced by the eight knockdowns he has suffered, some of them quite severe.
Usyk’s Strategy: Repeat Performance or Surprise Move?
It would seem logical for the reigning champion to adopt the same strategy that allowed him to triumph the first time, perhaps fine-tuning it with a few tactical adjustments to counter Fury’s uppercuts to the body and head, which caused him some trouble.
On the other hand, Usyk knows Fury is likely expecting to face the same opponent from May and might therefore look to shake things up with a surprise move—something that can never be ruled out when a ring genius like the Ukrainian is involved.
For instance, against Anthony Joshua, Usyk managed to partly reinvent himself for the rematch. While in their first fight, he maintained a lower work rate than usual, focusing on delivering more powerful punches to intimidate and destabilize his rival, in the second bout, he threw nearly 200 more punches, keeping AJ constantly on edge and causing him to lose composure in the later rounds.
On paper, a similar shift could define this Saturday’s fight. Unlike the May bout, where Usyk approached cautiously and only picked up his pace after the halfway mark, the Ukrainian could choose to attack Fury early, bombarding him with punches from the outset to catch him off guard and prevent him from implementing any pre-prepared tactics.
However, this approach wouldn’t come without risks. A reckless start could expose Usyk to heavy blows from a still-fresh Fury. Additionally, Usyk—no longer a young man and visibly fatigued by the final bell last time—might find himself running out of steam if he expends too much energy in the early rounds.
Fury’s Strategy: Stick to the Plan or Go for a Brutal Assault?
Many argue that Tyson Fury made a mistake in the first fight by adopting a passive, long-range boxing strategy, playing to his opponent’s strengths and nullifying his own weight advantage. According to these critics, the Englishman would do better to come into the rematch heavier and launch an all-out offensive, much like he did in his 2020 rematch against Deontay Wilder.
Personally, I’m highly skeptical of this theory and its practical application bringing the desired outcome for the Gypsy King. In my view, Fury lacks the footwork and agility needed to relentlessly chase Usyk around the ring and force him into a grueling close-range battle.
That approach worked brilliantly against the Bronze Bomber, but Wilder, unlike the current reigning champion, was vulnerable due to his significant technical deficiencies, poor balance, and overreliance on the belief that his devastating right hand could neutralize any opponent.
If Fury were to launch a head-on assault, Usyk would likely have little trouble stepping laterally out of the line of attack and countering with his masterful pivot footwork and ability to continuously and abruptly shift the angles of his combinations. A heavier, overly aggressive Fury would most likely be neutralized early on without much trouble, only to find himself out of breath and completely at the mercy of his opponent as the fight progresses.
A much wiser approach for the Gypsy King would be to replicate his strategy from May, extending the favorable phases of the fight characterized by quick movements, crossing punches, and the constant alternation of uppercuts to the body and head. He could then rely on his ring savvy and clinching tactics to manage the fight when fatigue makes it harder to keep Usyk at a safe distance.
Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury: What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction!
As you may have gathered from the earlier sections, in my opinion, while surprises and unexpected turns are always possible, the two fighters are likely to stick to a strategy similar to the one they adopted in their first encounter. To predict how Saturday’s bout will play out, it is crucial to correctly interpret what happened seven months ago in Riyadh.
Regular readers of Boxe Punch will remember that a month and a half ago, I published an opinion piece harshly criticizing the narrative that Fury was comfortably dominating the May fight before falling victim to a fatal lapse in concentration (click here to read the article).
What we witnessed was, in fact, a war of wills: Usyk’s determination to get close and unleash his combinations at short range clashing with Fury’s efforts to keep the Ukrainian at bay using his long reach. This battle is bound to be replayed in a few days, and the victor will be the one who proves to have the superior physical and mental stamina.
From my perspective, Oleksandr Usyk’s victory in May was more decisive than the official scorecards suggested. Fury was brilliant at convincing the judges to award him most of the close rounds with his flamboyant demeanor, charisma, and innate ability to give the impression of always being in control. However, the more concrete, effective, and deserving boxing—outside the stretch between the fourth round and the first half of the seventh—was delivered by the Ukrainian.
Heading into the rematch, there are compelling reasons to believe this gap could widen further. Not only do the various wear-and-tear factors outlined in the first section of this article suggest that Tyson Fury may be the more “worn-out” and fading of the two fighters, but the May 18 fight itself may have left a significant mark on the Gypsy King’s body and psyche.
Between the eighth and ninth rounds, Fury endured a series of brutal punches—the kind that can shorten a career. He will also step into the ring with the clear knowledge that he needs to be perfect and that at any moment, he could once again find himself on the brink of disaster. Usyk, on the other hand, knows he can withstand his opponent’s best shots and that he has the power to knock him out.
This contrast in mindset between the two fighters, combined with the advantages Usyk already demonstrated seven months ago, leads me to believe that the outcome of May’s fight will be reaffirmed even more decisively.
They say cats have nine lives, and Tyson Fury, almost like a giant feline, has risen from the ashes multiple times, finding clarity and the will to fight when he seemed doomed to stay on the canvas. But, fittingly enough, Fury has been knocked down eight times over the course of his professional career. Could this be a sign that he has reached the last of his many “sporting lives” and that the next fall will be his final one?
I believe so, and I predict a knockout victory for Oleksandr Usyk in the final third of the fight.