This Saturday at Wembley Stadium in the UK, the highly anticipated derby between English heavyweights Daniel “Dynamite” Dubois (21-2-0, 20 KOs) and Anthony “AJ” Joshua (28-3-0, 25 KOs) will take place. The fight will be for the IBF World Heavyweight title, recently awarded to Dubois by the International Boxing Federation. It will be the main event of a highly prestigious card co-organized by promoters Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren, with the financial backing from Saudi Arabian government official Turki Alalshikh.
Daniel Dubois: to Hell and Back
Who said you can’t bounce back from a loss? Boxing history is full of great champions who have rebounded from one or more setbacks to reach the top of the world after many had written them off as losers. Daniel Dubois is the perfect example of a fighter who, after tasting defeat twice, has significantly raised his stock by working hard in the gym and climbing back up thanks to overwhelming and well-deserved victories. While the first step in his comeback may have been aided by the poor form of his opponent, Jarrell Miller—who entered the ring at an incredible 333 pounds—his most recent triumph left many observers stunned. Dubois handed the powerful Croatian Filip Hrgovic his first loss in an all-out war, winning by technical KO in the eighth round after turning Hrgovic’s face into a bloody mask. Now, the challenge for the 27-year-old from Greenwich is even greater, but he has momentum on his side and feels more determined than ever to shock the world once again.
Anthony Joshua: Following in the Footsteps of Lennox and Wladimir
Several big heavyweights have altered their fighting styles over time, moving away from the reckless aggression of their younger years toward a more pragmatic approach that capitalizes on their physicality without giving their opponents too many chances. Two great champions who benefited from this transformation were Lennox Lewis and Wladimir Klitschko, and in both cases, the main tactical influence came from the great trainer Emanuel Steward. Anthony Joshua, though different in some respects, has followed a similar path to these illustrious predecessors. In his early professional years, he would engage in brawls, trying to destroy any opponent with brute force. Today, however, the British boxer has significantly expanded his repertoire, learning how to control fights from long range, improving his defense, and mastering the art of slowing the pace when necessary. His excellent partnership with coach Ben Davison has been the icing on the cake.
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch’s Prediction
When two powerful fighters face off, especially in the heavyweight division, it’s not uncommon for the fight to start slowly, as neither wants to give the other the chance to unleash their deadly weapons first.
However, this wasn’t the case the last time Dubois and Joshua stepped into the ring. Dubois chose to battle in the center of the ring from the opening bell against the Croatian giant Filip Hrgovic, even at the cost of taking numerous hard rights before gaining the upper hand. On the other hand, Joshua needed just two rounds to deliver a sensational KO to former MMA athlete Francis Ngannou, who had made Tyson Fury struggle just over four months earlier.
Nevertheless, the sense here is that this time, the two British giants will adopt a more cautious and circumspect approach than in their recent outings. Firstly, the stakes will be significantly higher, as it’s a world title fight. Furthermore, both fighters likely recognize that this Saturday’s opponent is far more dangerous and valuable than their recent rivals.
I expect Dubois to start the fight in a disciplined and careful manner, similar to what he did against Jarrell Miller or in his unlucky trip to Poland against Oleksandr Usyk. If that’s the case, Joshua will probably take the early rounds, as he has a better jab, better timing, and is slightly quicker with his hands—qualities that should give him the edge in a tactical fight over the long haul.
Of course, it wouldn’t make sense for Dubois to let the fight remain a “chess match” for too many rounds. If he does, he risks suffering the same fate he did against Joe Joyce, who jabbed and straight-punched him to the point of damaging his face and forcing him to quit. Sooner or later, the defending champion will need to create chaos, and that’s when things will get really interesting.
Dubois certainly has the power to shake Joshua, but unlike explosive heavyweights like Deontay Wilder or Zhilei Zhang, his punches tend to wear opponents down gradually rather than knocking them out in a split second. Being not overly fast in execution, Dubois—at least at the top level—proves particularly dangerous only when he can land punches consistently. Not coincidentally, both Jarrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic were gradually broken down rather than collapsing from a single blow.
This characteristic should allow Joshua to minimize damage. Even if he feels some of his compatriot’s punches, AJ can rely on the defensive and obstructive skills he has developed since his shocking loss to Andy Ruiz Jr. to dampen Dubois’ aggression and avoid disaster. It’s also possible the fight could devolve into messy and unspectacular phases if Dubois begins charging recklessly and Joshua frequently resorts to clinching to deprive him of space and energy.
The longer Dubois spends on the attack looking for a finishing blow, the more likely he is to make a fatal mistake. As fatigue sets in and the prospect of a points loss looms, Dubois could lose focus and leave more and more inviting openings for his challenger. Under those circumstances, it’s well known that Joshua won’t hesitate, especially since he has several tools in his arsenal to end a fight in grand fashion.
I believe that after racking up points early and fending off his opponent’s aggression with experience and cunning in the middle rounds, AJ will find the winning blow in the final third of the fight. I predict a KO victory for Anthony Joshua between the ninth and twelfth rounds.