Rumors of a potential fight between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence Crawford have grown increasingly louder in recent days, and it now seems almost certain that the two champions will face off in September 2025. According to the latest reports, the fight will take place at the 168-pound limit, without any rehydration clauses.
The news has sparked highly varied reactions among experts and fans alike. Some see this match as a complete farce, purely commercial and with an outcome that heavily favors Canelo. Others, like noted journalist Michael Montero and promoter Lou DiBella, are even giving Crawford the edge in the bout.
There will be plenty of time to analyze the fight in detail and share our predictions. For now, given the buzz surrounding the negotiations and the heated debates among fans, we’ve decided to outline the main reasons Crawford supporters can feel optimistic—and the reasons their dreams might be shattered.
Three Reasons Why Crawford Can Win
1) Against Canelo, “Lighter” Is Better
It’s no secret that the reigning super middleweight king has struggled at times against opponents who are mobile, agile, and fast. These qualities are much more common in the lower weight divisions, and Crawford might paradoxically try to use his smaller frame to exploit Canelo’s weaknesses. By avoiding close-range exchanges and focusing on timing and speed, Bud could force Canelo into a game of cat and mouse where the Mexican has historically been less comfortable.
2) Canelo’s Decline
There’s a notable consensus among analysts and fans that Saul Alvarez has been losing some of his sharpness in recent years. Since his loss to Dmitrii Bivol, Canelo has seemed to be on a gradual decline: despite racking up five consecutive wins, he hasn’t secured a single knockout, has looked fatigued in some fights, and has lost the dynamism that once made him a wrecking ball. If his reflexes and brilliance decline even slightly by next September, things could get very interesting for Crawford.
3) The Champion’s Aura
Terence Crawford isn’t like other fighters. He belongs to a select group of athletes blessed with extraordinary talent and that extra something—an intangible quality that allows them to pull off miracles when it matters most. More than in his dominant victory over Errol Spence, this trait was evident in Crawford’s triumph over Shawn Porter. When his corner told him at the end of the ninth round that he was trailing on points, Bud transformed into a man on a mission, dismantling his solid rival in no time. Special fighters like Crawford should never be counted out; when you least expect it, they pull a rabbit out of the hat.
Three Reasons Why Crawford Can’t Win
1) The Size Difference
There’s no way around it: in September, two fighters with vastly different physical frames will step into the ring. Starting his career as a lightweight, Crawford found his natural home at welterweight, and his recent move to 154 pounds was driven more by ambition than physical growth. Canelo, on the other hand, has been settled at 168 pounds for over four years and has even ventured into light heavyweight twice. That’s about three weight classes of difference—a massive gap that, as history shows (e.g., Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux, Spence vs. Garcia, Canelo vs. Charlo), often leads to mismatches.
2) Bud Isn’t Floyd
From where I stand, many who give Crawford a strong chance of winning are mistakenly comparing him to Floyd Mayweather Jr. Replicating Floyd’s 2013 performance against Canelo is wishful thinking—not only because Canelo has significantly improved since then, but also because Crawford’s style is fundamentally different. Bud isn’t an elusive boxer who wins on finesse, touching and evading endlessly. He’s an explosive counterpuncher who has often relied on his lethal power to get out of trouble. Lacking this weapon against Canelo—who will likely absorb his punches without much trouble—could be a major issue.
3) The Inactivity Factor
If neither fighter takes an interim bout, they’ll enter the ring after a considerable layoff. For Canelo, it will have been a year since his last fight; for Crawford, slightly longer. While inactivity might appear to affect both fighters equally, considering their respective styles and likely strategies, it’s clear that the layoff poses a greater risk for Bud. Forced to rely on timing, reflexes, and movement, Crawford is more vulnerable to the effects of rust. While it’s true that Crawford has fought infrequently in recent years without showing much decline, it’s far from certain that he can continue to perform at the highest level at nearly 38 years old after such a long break.