This Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Mario “El Azteca” Barrios (29-2-2, 18 KOs) will attempt to defend his WBC welterweight title against challenger Ryan “King Ry” Garcia (24-2-0, 20 KOs). The event, titled “The Ring: High Stakes,” will be broadcast live on DAZN pay-per-view.
Mario Barrios: Few Peaks, Plenty of Consistency
It is no coincidence that Barrios’ trainer, Joe Goossen, stated that the key factor in determining the dynamics and outcome of this fight will be the ability to maintain effectiveness over the full twelve rounds. If there is one quality that defines the reigning world champion, it is consistency. While he may not excel spectacularly in any single department, Barrios has consistently displayed focus, reliability, and discipline in executing his game plan.
In his most recent bout against the legendary but aging Manny Pacquiao, the contrast between Pacquiao’s explosive yet sporadic bursts and Barrios’ less flashy but systematic work was evident. Pacquiao drew most of the applause, but Barrios, methodically pumping his jab and sweeping the final three rounds on all scorecards, fully deserved to retain his belt.
Ryan Garcia: The Fighter You Never Quite Figure Out
If Barrios’ performances resemble a steady function, Ryan Garcia’s fluctuate like a roller coaster. King Ry has delivered moments of brilliance and spectacular knockouts, but also lethargic performances and glaring mistakes.
This duality was evident in his last two outings. Against Devin Haney, in a bout clouded by controversy due to weight issues and a positive test for ostarine, Garcia unleashed devastating punches, quickly erasing Haney’s early advantage and repeatedly pushing him to the brink. Against Rolando Romero, however, Garcia looked like a shadow of himself—hesitant and ineffective. His fans call it an off night; his critics attribute it to the absence of performance enhancers. So which is the real Garcia?
What Will Happen? Boxe Punch Prediction
Regardless of which version of Garcia shows up Saturday night, there is one common thread in his fights: Ryan struggles when the pace is slow.
This assessment does not rely solely on his poor showing against Romero. Several of Garcia’s fights have shown that his timing, footwork, distance control, and jab are not refined enough to allow him to dictate the action unless he pushes the tempo aggressively.
His loss to Gervonta Davis is particularly illustrative. After being carelessly dropped in the second round, Garcia adopted a cautious approach and tried to box intelligently. Despite holding a clear height and reach advantage, he gradually fell behind on the scorecards.
That is telling, because Davis himself often concedes early rounds when fighting at a measured pace. Yet against Garcia, he controlled the bout with ease, demonstrating superior timing and ring generalship.
These considerations lead me to believe that in a tactical, long-range contest built around in-and-out movement and a steady left jab, Barrios has a far better chance of taking control.
“El Azteca” is technically superior to Romero, meaning Garcia will need to make his power felt, drag him into exchanges, and possibly hurt or drop him to win. He will need determination, aggression, and the kind of power he displayed at his best.
Joe Goossen, who knows Garcia well, has questioned whether his punching power remains as effective at welterweight—and he may be right. Barrios has been settled at 147 pounds for over four years, fully adapting his physique to the division and growing accustomed to absorbing welterweight punches. He is not invulnerable, but neither is he fragile.
Unlike his hesitant approach against Romero, Garcia will likely take initiative, since Barrios is not a devastating puncher. However, unlike the bout with Haney, the champion is unlikely to overcommit and leave glaring openings.
I expect a fight largely controlled by Mario Barrios during the calmer stretches, punctuated by sudden chaotic moments where Garcia could find opportunities. Ultimately, I believe Barrios’ experience and Goossen’s guidance will allow him to secure enough rounds to retain his title.
Prediction: Mario Barrios by close decision.