This week, choosing the most interesting fight to analyze for my “Fight of the Week” column was truly difficult. All four world title bouts scheduled for Saturday night in Riyadh, as part of the event called “The Ring IV,” fully deserve great attention, considering the extremely high level of the fighters involved. However, the clash for the WBO World Welterweight Title between champion Brian Norman Jr and challenger Devin Haney is the one with the most uncertain prediction and the most intriguing technical and tactical implications. So let’s try to figure out what awaits us!
Two reasons why Norman could win
From 22 to 25, everything can change
Many who predict a Haney victory suggest not focusing solely on Norman’s recent impressive wins, but instead widening the scope to include his earlier fights. In 2023, in particular, the American earned three consecutive point victories over opponents who were nothing special, without generating much excitement.
However, it must be emphasized that at a young age, a fighter can make major leaps forward even from one year to the next. It should not be taken for granted that today’s Norman is the same fighter who, at 22, still looked incomplete and full of gaps. The American may have found only later the key to maximizing his technical and physical qualities.
Power on one side, fragility on the other
Devin Haney has several standout attributes, but even his most enthusiastic supporters wouldn’t list chin and power among his main strengths. The lack of sufficiently deterrent offensive weapons and the fragility he has shown at times could prove fatal now that “The Dream” is making the second weight-class jump of his career.
Norman is a powerful puncher, as indicated by his KO percentage (over 78%), and he is a true welterweight, even if not exceptionally big for the division. It is therefore possible that, if needed, he could storm forward, force Haney into a grueling inside fight, and impose his superior physicality.
Two reasons why Haney could win
The crucial importance of footwork
In his last three fights, Brian Norman has been sensational. Both Giovani Santillan and Derrick Cuevas, as well as Jin Sasaki, were completely destroyed by the American, suffering brutal knockouts. However, these three opponents have something in common: they barely use their legs, preferring to battle at short range and offering an easy target.
When in the past Norman was forced to take the initiative and “chase” opponents who didn’t stand still in front of him, he looked far less comfortable and far less destructive. One episode in particular deserves mention: in March 2024, at the end of the first round of his bout against Janelson Figueroa, as he tried to pin his rival against the ropes, Norman found himself poorly positioned, his feet almost parallel, and suffered a heavy knockdown, being saved by the bell.
The lesson learned against Garcia
Some believe that Haney emerged diminished from his fight with Ryan Garcia, even though the result was later ruled a no-contest due to Garcia’s positive test for ostarine. The former lightweight and super-lightweight world champion was knocked down three times, but from those difficulties he may have learned a valuable lesson.
Facing a very dangerous opponent who cheated twice—doping and missing weight—Haney adopted a suicidal strategy, pressing forward and aggressively engaging his rival for much of the fight, then paying the price. When he boxes cautiously, “The Dream” may bore and frustrate demanding fans, but he is certainly much harder to neutralize…
What will happen? Boxe Punch’s prediction
Judging from his last fight—won amid yawns from the crowd against Jose Ramirez—Devin Haney seems determined to never again be influenced by fans’ demands for excitement. The American appears to have understood the need to minimize risks, and it is very likely that against a dangerous puncher like Norman he will try to stay on the outside.
The fight therefore has real potential to turn into a sort of chase, or, to use a comparison much loved by Saudi official Turki Alalshikh, a boxing version of the cartoon Tom & Jerry.
What is far less predictable is determining who will benefit more in this scenario—the “pursuer” or the “runner.” It will depend on the answers to several difficult questions, two of which are especially crucial. Will Norman be able to intimidate, shake, and destabilize Haney with quick shots, or will he need to fully load up his punches to do so? Will Haney resist the temptation to “play the hero” and stick to his tactical plan, ignoring Alalshikh’s and the fans’ desire for an exciting show?
As you may have gathered from the first part of this article, we are facing a true web of unknowns, which is why I personally consider this bout a classic “pick ’em fight,” open to any result. Opposite outcomes—from a devastating Norman KO to a genuine boxing masterclass by Haney—are all plausible. The only certainty is that after this bout we will know much more about the absolute value of these two fighters.
Naturally, despite the great uncertainty, I won’t shy away from making a prediction. Personally, I have the feeling that Devin Haney, despite the obvious risks of this matchup, will manage to prevail. I believe The Dream, with a cautious approach, will expose Norman’s difficulties in tracking down a constantly moving target, and will win enough rounds by prodding with his jab and disorienting him with changes of direction.
Sooner or later Norman will try to drag the challenger into a brawl, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to produce a few dramatic moments throughout the twelve rounds. However, I believe Haney has enough character to overcome any rough patches and regain control.
I therefore predict a unanimous decision victory for Devin Haney in a fight that will be largely uneventful, but with some moments of high tension.