As the saying goes, “Only those who don’t make predictions never get them wrong.” This time, avoiding mistakes requires almost prophetic abilities. The Last Crescendo, the sensational boxing event set to take place this Saturday at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, will be packed with highly unpredictable fights—classic “pick’em” matchups where anything can happen. However, at Boxe Punch, we’re not backing down. While we prepare an in-depth analysis of the highly anticipated main event, in this piece, we’ll take the risk of predicting the outcomes of each of the six undercard fights!
Joshua Buatsi vs Callum Smith – WBO Interim Light Heavyweight Title
Had this match taken place at a different stage in these fighters’ careers, the odds would certainly have been much closer, and I myself would have probably favored Smith. Both boxers have shown some clear weaknesses throughout their careers, including somewhat stiff upper-body movement and a mechanical fighting style that makes their boxing less fluid. What tilts the balance in Buatsi’s favor is the vastly different momentum the two Englishmen are experiencing: one remains unbeaten and is on the rise, while the other is coming off a devastating defeat—both physically and mentally—and has already flirted with the idea of retirement. While Smith’s left hook is certainly capable of turning the fight on its head, I have a feeling that Buatsi’s greater determination, combined with his heavy body work, will wear down Mundo as the rounds progress, leading to a late stoppage.
Prediction: Buatsi wins by KO in rounds 9-11
Zhilei Zhang vs Agit Kabayel – WBC Interim Heavyweight Title
To win this fight, Kabayel will have to walk through fire. The German fighter cannot rely on a hit-and-run strategy like the one that barely earned him a narrow victory over Derek Chisora in 2017. Zhang has too much reach and too fast hands to be outmaneuvered that way, meaning that sooner or later, Kabayel will have to go on the offensive—running the very real risk of walking into one of Zhang’s hypersonic missiles. However, if he can withstand the impact without crumbling, the German brawler will find himself in a strong position to take over the fight. The blueprint was laid by Jerry Forrest in 2021: the American survived two brutal knockdowns but kept pressing forward, pushing Zhang to the brink of collapse in the later rounds. That was a younger Zhang, four years fresher, in a ten-round fight rather than a twelve-rounder. This suggests that Kabayel could go a step further and finish the job.
Prediction: Agit Kabayel wins by KO in rounds 10-12
Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Israil Madrimov – WBC Interim Super Welterweight Title
Two logical approaches can be taken to analyze this intriguing fight, both equally valid but leading to opposite conclusions. The first considers Ortiz’s less-than-impeccable defense and Madrimov’s sharp counterpunching skills, which suggest the possibility of a devastating counter-shot landing as the aggressive American moves forward—one that could shut his lights off. The second approach focuses on Ortiz’s relentless work rate and Madrimov’s tendency to fight at a lower tempo, taking extended breaks between exchanges. This combination of factors is concerning for those backing the Uzbek fighter. While we’ve already seen Ortiz absorb huge shots and come roaring back after moments of adversity, we’ve never seen Madrimov deal with a relentless attacker who never lets him breathe. That gives me a slight preference for the American puncher.
Prediction: Vergil Ortiz Jr wins by close decision
Carlos Adames vs Hamzah Sheeraz – WBC Middleweight World Title
Sheeraz has captivated a huge number of boxing fans with his spectacular and thrilling style. The English fighter boasts an enormous physique, devastating power, and excellent shot variety, though some concerns remain about his footwork and defense, which is hindered by his rigid upper body movement. However, Adames doesn’t seem to have the ideal attributes to exploit these apparent weaknesses. The Dominican is an excellent boxer with solid technique and great timing, but the only time he faced a physically imposing opponent—Brazil’s Patrick Teixeira—he was completely outmatched, losing nearly every round (don’t believe the horrendous scorecards from the judges). Sheeraz is far superior to Teixeira: he may need a few rounds to decipher his opponent’s stance switches and style, but sooner or later, he should be able to force an inside battle and score one of his emphatic KOs.
Prediction: Hamzah Sheeraz wins by KO in rounds 4-6
Shakur Stevenson vs Floyd Schofield – WBC Lightweight World Title
Of all the fights on this card, this is the one I find the least exciting, as the skill gap between the two fighters seems too wide for it to be a competitive contest. Schofield has shown high work rates and great physical strength so far, but he is still too raw for this level, having never faced opposition tough enough to prepare him for such a big stage. The 22-year-old from Austin tends to lean into punches, and in his eagerness, he often fails to turn his fists properly, landing with the inside of the glove and losing effectiveness. Stevenson, therefore, should have little trouble anticipating his challenger’s intentions and neutralizing his aggressive but unstructured pressure. I expect Schofield to gradually lose confidence and intensity as the rounds go by, falling further and further behind on the scorecards. Shakur has made a habit of doing just enough to secure victory, so I see a decision as more likely than a stoppage.
Prediction: Shakur Stevenson wins by wide unanimous decision
Daniel Dubois vs Joseph Parker – IBF Heavyweight World Title
Parker is riding a fantastic wave of momentum, and I’m not surprised that many believe he has a real shot at pulling off yet another upset. However, some aspects of his recent victories make me skeptical. For different reasons, both Wilder and Zhang allowed Parker to dictate the pace of the fight—a situation in which he has always thrived. Wilder gave him the center of the ring and control of the action; Zhang was winning before completely running out of gas, becoming as immobile as a statue. The Dubois we’ve seen in recent fights is an extremely aggressive fighter, determined to impose his power, and it’s reasonable to expect that on Saturday, he will adopt the same fearless approach that allowed him to dismantle Hrgović and Joshua. Deprived of the time and space he needs to execute his game plan and hunted down by a bigger, stronger opponent, Parker risks finding himself overwhelmed and gradually broken down—just as he was against Joyce.
Prediction: Daniel Dubois wins by KO in rounds 8-10