This Saturday, at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, Puerto Rican slugger Subriel Matias will defend his WBC super lightweight World Title against British challenger Dalton Smith. The event, promoted by Juan Ivan Orengo’s Fresh Productions, will be broadcast live on Pay-Per-View via ppv.com.
A fight full of unknowns
Predicting the outcome of a boxing match — or even just its possible dynamics — is always a complicated task. It becomes even more difficult when one of the fighters has yet to be tested at the highest level. This is precisely the situation we are facing here.
While we can now outline Subriel Matias’ strengths and weaknesses with reasonable certainty, having seen him in action several times against proven opposition, the same cannot be said for Dalton Smith. His record may be spotless, but it is undeniably short on meaningful names.
How can we assess a fighter’s power if it has never been tested against truly solid opponents? How can we judge his chin if it has yet to be cracked by lethal punchers? How can we evaluate his technique, timing, and adaptability without having seen him compete against fighters who excel in those areas?
I therefore have no choice but to rely on the eye test — on personal perceptions and intuitions that, unfortunately, lack solid empirical backing. As usual, I won’t shy away from making a call, but before revealing who I believe will come out on top, let me outline the key factors that could tip the scales one way or the other.
Three reasons why Matias could win
The experience gap
Experience often plays a crucial role in boxing. Having already been forced to dig deep, to suffer, and to absorb heavy shots can make all the difference when it comes to managing adversity without being overwhelmed by pressure.
From this standpoint, Matias clearly holds the edge. The Puerto Rican has already fought four world title bouts, has already confronted his own limitations, and has already been knocked down. Smith, on the other hand, has so far had an easy ride in the ring, facing opponents who lacked the physical and technical tools to truly trouble him. If dragged into deep waters for the first time, he could drown.
Smith is not an elusive fighter
As brief as it was, Dalton Smith’s 2024 bout against José Zepeda highlighted some interesting aspects of the Englishman’s style. In the first three rounds, Smith attempted to rely on movement and counterpunching, ceding the initiative to his opponent — and, truth be told, that strategy did not pay off.
“Thunder” looked uncomfortable trying to control the fight off his back foot and only took command once he became more proactive and began to accept close-range exchanges. This suggests that it will be extremely difficult for Smith to contain Matias’ relentless pressure without engaging at close quarters and without expending a tremendous amount of energy.
Three reasons why Smith could win
Matias’ late-round drop-offs
Subriel Matias’ fights rarely go the distance. The Puerto Rican tends to end matters well before the final bell, as evidenced by his extremely high knockout percentage (95.65%). However, when he has recently been forced to go the full 36 minutes, the world champion has shown a tendency to fade in the closing stages.
Both in his loss to Liam Paro and in his highly controversial win over Albert Puello, Matias clearly lost the final two rounds, showing physical fatigue and a drop in sharpness and intensity. If this pattern were to repeat itself in a closely contested fight, Smith — young, healthy, and fresh — could take advantage late to steal the victory.
The blueprint set by Paro and Puello
When a fighter has already been beaten, it is often possible to draw lessons from what his opponents did in the ring and attempt to replicate that tactical approach. In Matias’ case, it makes little sense to focus on his 2020 loss to Petros Ananyan, both because so much time has passed and because Matias was likely not in optimal physical and mental condition that night.
His bouts against Paro (a points loss) and Puello (a highly disputed decision win), however, offer valuable insight into what the Caribbean fighter struggles with most. In both cases, the keys to surviving his ferocious pressure were constant movement and a high work rate, favoring speed and volume over the pursuit of a knockout. Smith will undoubtedly have taken notes.
What will happen? Boxe Punch’s prediction
Dalton Smith is a technically sound boxer, capable of landing well-coordinated and explosive shots to both body and head. In my view, he will perform well for a number of rounds, taking advantage of the significant defensive gaps left by Matias to land cleanly and confidently.
I do not believe, however, that the British fighter possesses the power needed to inflict truly meaningful damage on such a tough and resilient opponent. I therefore expect the reigning champion, despite absorbing plenty of shots, to continue applying his relentless pressure.
As noted earlier, elusiveness is not Smith’s strongest asset, nor is he accustomed to fighting at an extremely high pace. I find it hard to believe that he can move nonstop and throw punches at will for the entire duration of the fight. Sooner or later, he will need to slow down — and at that point, avoiding being overwhelmed will not be easy.
I don’t think the challenger has yet accumulated enough experience to complete this difficult task. I expect him to take the lead, as many of Matias’ opponents have done before, but to be unable to sustain that momentum, gradually worn down round after round by the champion’s exhausting physical pressure.
My prediction is therefore a knockout victory for Subriel Matias around the ninth round.